Sam Altman
CEO · OpenAI
"We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies."
Their Claim
in 2025
Deadline
Dec 31, 2025
Overdue By
99 DAYS
// Prediction Accountability Tracker — Est. 2026
Tech executives keep predicting AI will replace all white-collar jobs within months. We track every claim, every deadline, every broken promise. With receipts.
8
Predictions Tracked
8
Pending (Clock Running)
0
Deadlines Expired ✗
0
Proven Correct
Sam Altman
CEO · OpenAI
"We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies."
Their Claim
in 2025
Deadline
Dec 31, 2025
Overdue By
99 DAYS
Sam Altman
CEO · OpenAI
"Some areas, I think just like totally, totally gone. Customer support—when you call customer support, you're on an AI, and that's fine."
Their Claim
imminent / already happening
Deadline
Jul 22, 2026
Time Remaining
3M 13D
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO · Meta
"I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI. And I don't mean autocomplete."
Their Claim
12 to 18 months
est. deadline
Deadline
Aug 1, 2026
Time Remaining
3M 23D
Elon Musk
CEO · xAI / Tesla
"If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years."
Their Claim
next year, within two years
est. deadline
Deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Time Remaining
8M 25D
Elon Musk
CEO · xAI / Tesla
"I think we are quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year. If it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure."
Their Claim
this year or next year for sure
est. deadline
Deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Time Remaining
8M 25D
Dario Amodei
CEO · Anthropic
"I simultaneously think that AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs over 1–5 years, while also thinking we may have AI that is more capable than everyone in only 1–2 years."
Their Claim
1–2 years for AI supremacy; 1–5 years for job loss
est. deadline
Deadline
May 28, 2027
Time Remaining
13M 23D
Mustafa Suleyman
CEO of Microsoft AI · Microsoft
"Either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person—most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months."
Their Claim
12 to 18 months
est. deadline
Deadline
Aug 12, 2027
Time Remaining
16M 9D
Jim Farley
CEO · Ford
"AI will cut in half the number of white-collar jobs in the U.S."
Their Claim
unspecified near-term
Deadline
Jan 1, 2028
Time Remaining
21M 1D